Yes, I know it's been forever (well almost 2 1/2 weeks) since I last blogged. I'm not sure if it was just life catching up with me, or a combination of baseball-related disappointments that killed my typing fingers and creative mind... whatever it was, I guess I needed a little break.
So, for those disappointments. Well, first off I lost one of my fantasy baseball leagues this year by a single home run. Yes, ONE, UNO, 1! 278 home runs led this particular 10 team league. Alexei Ramirez' grand slam against the Detroit Tigers on September 29th gave me 277 of them for the season. Three other owners also had 277 home runs, giving me 7 1/2 points in the category. I lost that league by 1 1/2 points - the leader finished with a total of 70 points, I finished with 68 1/2. Another home run would have given me a tie for first (9 1/2 points) in the category. Those two points would have given me a total of 70 1/2, and the title by a mere 1/2 point.
I've been playing this fantasy baseball game for 10 years now, and this was definitely my most heartbreaking loss ever! I mean, I also could have tied for winning that league with just two more wins from my pitching staff. A special assist from the Mets bullpen must be noted for blowing six of my staff ace Johan Santana's games this year!!! I also could have also won that league with just two more stolen bases! The number of different ways I could have won that league is practically countless, and yet I somehow lost! It's now three weeks since the regular season ended and honestly I'm STILL not over it! Perhaps by this time next year, I'll be over it. Yes, it was even worse than losing a league last year thanks to my pitching ace, Jake Peavy being forced to start game 163 for the San Diego Padres against the Colorado Rockies. I went from a tie for first in a league at 79 points to 2 1/2 points back after he predictably got torched by the eventual 2007 World Series runner-ups. With what's happened to me the past two years in those two leagues, I'm almost afraid to see how my heart is going to get broken in 2009. At least last year, I had the solace of winning one league going away and knowing nothing was going to take that away from me as September started.
In my other four leagues, I was in it right until the final weekend. I had two teams finish in third, one 2 1/2 points out, the other 4 points out. My other two teams came in fourth, one 3 1/2 points out, the other 8 1/2 points out. Combined, I lost the five leagues by a total of just 20 points! With just a few breaks in any direction, I could have won every single one of those leagues... Needless to say, I will be playing my fantasy baseball leagues with more than just a little chip on my shoulder next year...
As bad as the 2008 fantasy baseball season turned out for me, at least I had the solace that maybe that Freeway World Series I'd been dreaming about since I was little would finally come to fruitition. The Angels had the best record in baseball. The Dodgers, well they were team that NO ONE wanted to face as they were on a complete roll thanks to Manny Ramirez being in a Michael Jordan-like zone in his two months with the Blue Crew.
Well, it's October 20th and as I type this, we have a World Series coming up between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The best laid plans... :( The Angels went out meekly (save the heart of the lineup) against the Boston Red Sox for the second year in a row... But hey at least the Dodgers swept the Cubs in their first round series! Unfortunately, the same guy (Rafael Furcal) who planted the pivotable bunt to send Carlos Zambrano and his Cub teammates reeling, also was the man most responsible for the Dodgers exit against the Phillies, committing a key error in game one of that series to get Derek Lowe into trouble, and three more errors in one inning in game five, putting a 3-1 game all but out of reach at 5-1.
And now for the reality of it all. Presumably, K-Rod has saved his final game as an Angel and D-Lowe has started his final game as a Dodger. Those guys basically aren't replaceable, and unless something REALLY crazy happens, they will be playing baseball elsewhere in 2009. Don't be surprised if both don't wind up on the once again heartbroken New York Mets. Sorry, Dave! And what about Manny? It will probably cost an arm and a leg for the Dodgers to re-sign him, but I really think they should. There's no doubt he put people in the seats and energized the Dodger team and fans like no one else since a guy with two bad legs hit a home run off "the Eck" twenty years ago to spur them to their last World Series crown. Has it really been twenty years since Kirk Gibson and Orel Hershisher did all of their magic? Wow, how time flies!
So what else have I been doing? Well, watching lots of football both college and pro. Yes, those were my UCLA Bruins who lost 59-0 to BYU back on September 13th. Conversely, my crosstown rival USC Trojans put a 69-0 lashing on Washington State this past weekend. Ah yes, is it time for basketball yet???
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Showing posts with label Fantasy Baseball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fantasy Baseball. Show all posts
Monday, October 20, 2008
Monday, September 1, 2008
5 Down, 1 To Go...
As Labor Day 2008 winds down, it also means that five months of the 2008 baseball season have come and gone and that there is just one month left to go. For those of us that play the fantasy baseball game, these final four weeks are the most crucial ones of the year. Though many of you may now be focused on your fantasy football leagues, I for one am really focusing on doing what it takes to win my baseball leagues.
With the close of August, here's how my teams in my five most important leagues stood:
Angels: 1st place - 70.5 pts, 4.5 ahead
Crusaders: 2nd place - 72.5 pts, 4.5 back
Crushers: 2nd place - 69.5 pts, 3.0 back
Thrashers: 3rd place - 60.5 pts, 5.0 back
Waves: 3rd place - 64.5 pts, 3.5 back
Yes, I'm in a position to possibly win each of my leagues! This is a far cry from the midpoint of the season when most of my teams were struggling just to stay in the middle of the pack.
The Waves team had a truly amazing week 22, making up 14 points on the lead! That team went from 54.0 pts to 64.5 (a 10.5 pt gain) as the leader lost 3.5 pts from the 71.5 he started the week with. Jason Werth with a .500 BA, 4 HR, 9 RBI's, 8 runs and a steal paced my hitters, while Jake Peavy's 20 K's and Bronson Arroyo's two wins led my pitchers. And I would have made up even more ground in that league if I hadn't benched a slumping Jimmy Rollins for Orlando Cabrera in that league. I benched Rollins (along with Adrian Beltre) on the Thrashers team as well. Combined they did this on my bench for that team: 25-54 for a .463 BA, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 9 R, 7 SB. OUCH!!! I can only hope that this doesn't come back to bite me come the end of September. Regardless, it's been an incredible roller coaster ride this year for me in my leagues... it definitely should be quite the finish in all of them.
Last year, things were quite different. I did three of these leagues and had one won by now coasting with a 15 point or so lead. In another I was hopelessly out of it, in 7th place and playing only for pride. In a third, I was in the runner-up position and made a mad dash to vault into a tie for the lead as the regular season closed. Unfortunately for me, Jake Peavy had to pitch that extra game at Coors Field for the Padres and I ended up losing 2.5 points and finishing second after a valient run from 17 points down...
What will the final month for me hold? Only the man above knows, I just hope He's smiling upon me and my teams!
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With the close of August, here's how my teams in my five most important leagues stood:
Angels: 1st place - 70.5 pts, 4.5 ahead
Crusaders: 2nd place - 72.5 pts, 4.5 back
Crushers: 2nd place - 69.5 pts, 3.0 back
Thrashers: 3rd place - 60.5 pts, 5.0 back
Waves: 3rd place - 64.5 pts, 3.5 back
Yes, I'm in a position to possibly win each of my leagues! This is a far cry from the midpoint of the season when most of my teams were struggling just to stay in the middle of the pack.
The Waves team had a truly amazing week 22, making up 14 points on the lead! That team went from 54.0 pts to 64.5 (a 10.5 pt gain) as the leader lost 3.5 pts from the 71.5 he started the week with. Jason Werth with a .500 BA, 4 HR, 9 RBI's, 8 runs and a steal paced my hitters, while Jake Peavy's 20 K's and Bronson Arroyo's two wins led my pitchers. And I would have made up even more ground in that league if I hadn't benched a slumping Jimmy Rollins for Orlando Cabrera in that league. I benched Rollins (along with Adrian Beltre) on the Thrashers team as well. Combined they did this on my bench for that team: 25-54 for a .463 BA, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 9 R, 7 SB. OUCH!!! I can only hope that this doesn't come back to bite me come the end of September. Regardless, it's been an incredible roller coaster ride this year for me in my leagues... it definitely should be quite the finish in all of them.
Last year, things were quite different. I did three of these leagues and had one won by now coasting with a 15 point or so lead. In another I was hopelessly out of it, in 7th place and playing only for pride. In a third, I was in the runner-up position and made a mad dash to vault into a tie for the lead as the regular season closed. Unfortunately for me, Jake Peavy had to pitch that extra game at Coors Field for the Padres and I ended up losing 2.5 points and finishing second after a valient run from 17 points down...
What will the final month for me hold? Only the man above knows, I just hope He's smiling upon me and my teams!
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Saturday, August 23, 2008
Fantasy Baseball Update...
With completion of tomorrow's games, there will be exactly five weeks left in the Major League Baseball season. For those of us that play Fantasy Baseball, it means the six month daily grind of managing your teams is soon coming to an end. If you've done well, you're still contending for some titles.
As for me, I'm in 18 leagues total this year, and I still have a chance at winning 13 of them. Most importantly, I'm still very much alive in almost all of my five money leagues! At this very moment, I'm in first in one (by 6 points), in second in one (5.5 points back), fourth in one (only 8.5 points back), and seventh in two (but only 9 points out of first in one and 18 points out in the other).
Come September 1, the goal is to generally be within 10 points of the lead in a standard 5x5 roto ML universe league if you want to have a chance to win... to be in that position in four of my five leagues, tells me that I've at least done something right. All you can hope to do is draft well, manage your team well and put yourself in a position to win. What will happen to me over the final five weeks? I have no idea, but I can only hope that the guys who have been most instrumental in helping get me to this point such as Aramis Ramirez, Jermaine Dye, Brian Roberts, Geovany Soto, Chris Snyder, Aubrey Huff, speed demon Willy Taveras, Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, James Shields, Tim Lincecum, Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Ricky Nolasco and the ageless Randy Johnson can keep it going another five weeks. If so, chances are I'm going to be very happy come October 1!
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As for me, I'm in 18 leagues total this year, and I still have a chance at winning 13 of them. Most importantly, I'm still very much alive in almost all of my five money leagues! At this very moment, I'm in first in one (by 6 points), in second in one (5.5 points back), fourth in one (only 8.5 points back), and seventh in two (but only 9 points out of first in one and 18 points out in the other).
Come September 1, the goal is to generally be within 10 points of the lead in a standard 5x5 roto ML universe league if you want to have a chance to win... to be in that position in four of my five leagues, tells me that I've at least done something right. All you can hope to do is draft well, manage your team well and put yourself in a position to win. What will happen to me over the final five weeks? I have no idea, but I can only hope that the guys who have been most instrumental in helping get me to this point such as Aramis Ramirez, Jermaine Dye, Brian Roberts, Geovany Soto, Chris Snyder, Aubrey Huff, speed demon Willy Taveras, Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, James Shields, Tim Lincecum, Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Ricky Nolasco and the ageless Randy Johnson can keep it going another five weeks. If so, chances are I'm going to be very happy come October 1!
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Sunday, August 10, 2008
Carlos Lee Out For Season! :(
As many of you know, I'm an avid fantasy baseball player, and a less avid fantasy football player. I still play the latter, but I honestly believe it takes little to no skill to win a fantasy football league - it's usually about luck. Anyways, being a fan of fantasy baseball, I participate in nearly 20 leagues each year. Some or more casual, others are more important - particuarly the money leagues I play in every year on CBS Sportsline. When I tell you the prize for winning such a league is in the four figures, you'll probably understand why I'm a little upset at what is going on right now.
In case you missed the news, Carlos Lee of the Houston Astros was hit by a pitch from Cincinnati Reds pitcher Bronson Arroyo last night. The pitch broke Lee's left pinkie and he's going to be out 6-8 weeks. In other words, he's all but done for the year!!! Just how big of a loss is this? Lee was leading the National League in RBI's with 100, and was 4th in the league in homers with 28, to go along with a .314 batting average. Yes, this is a major jolt to not one, but TWO of my five teams!!! And it could have been worse as I traded him for Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon a couple of weeks ago in a third league.
Players such as Carlos Lee are deemed by Sportsline and most other fantasy sites as "too valuable to drop," so they are typically put on the respective site's list of Undroppable Players. In other words, even if you want to drop these players, you can't drop them. Albert Pujols, A-Rod, Johan Santana and other players that would typically be picked in the first five rounds of a fantasy draft are usually on these lists. Anyways, as of early this morning, Carlos Lee was STILL on the undroppable list for CBS Sportsline even though he's done for the year! Given that lineups freeze on Monday and I need to get a decent substitute to replace him with, you can probably understand my frustration. It would be awful to lose a league as a result of something being there to protect the integrity of leagues. Hopefully, I will be able to drop Lee VERY soon!
** EDIT **
After some going back and forth with a representative at Sportsline this morning for a bit, I was able to get him dropped from my teams and he is now off the Undroppable List. Mission Accomplished! I only can hope that my fill-ins Mike Cameron and Jason Kubel will perform decent for me in the coming month and a half.
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Note: Fixing the Billboard Hot 100 chart: Part III will appear tomorrow... ran out of time today as I was celebrating my hephew Jason's birthday.
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In case you missed the news, Carlos Lee of the Houston Astros was hit by a pitch from Cincinnati Reds pitcher Bronson Arroyo last night. The pitch broke Lee's left pinkie and he's going to be out 6-8 weeks. In other words, he's all but done for the year!!! Just how big of a loss is this? Lee was leading the National League in RBI's with 100, and was 4th in the league in homers with 28, to go along with a .314 batting average. Yes, this is a major jolt to not one, but TWO of my five teams!!! And it could have been worse as I traded him for Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon a couple of weeks ago in a third league.
Players such as Carlos Lee are deemed by Sportsline and most other fantasy sites as "too valuable to drop," so they are typically put on the respective site's list of Undroppable Players. In other words, even if you want to drop these players, you can't drop them. Albert Pujols, A-Rod, Johan Santana and other players that would typically be picked in the first five rounds of a fantasy draft are usually on these lists. Anyways, as of early this morning, Carlos Lee was STILL on the undroppable list for CBS Sportsline even though he's done for the year! Given that lineups freeze on Monday and I need to get a decent substitute to replace him with, you can probably understand my frustration. It would be awful to lose a league as a result of something being there to protect the integrity of leagues. Hopefully, I will be able to drop Lee VERY soon!
** EDIT **
After some going back and forth with a representative at Sportsline this morning for a bit, I was able to get him dropped from my teams and he is now off the Undroppable List. Mission Accomplished! I only can hope that my fill-ins Mike Cameron and Jason Kubel will perform decent for me in the coming month and a half.
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Note: Fixing the Billboard Hot 100 chart: Part III will appear tomorrow... ran out of time today as I was celebrating my hephew Jason's birthday.
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Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Pujols FINALLY Gets To D-Lowe
The St. Louis Cardinals have always owned Derek Lowe - OK, everyone but perhaps superstar Albert Pujols. As I told a few friends and family over the weekend, I had a VERY bad feeling about this game for Lowe and the Dodgers. I told them that I think Pujols is long "overdue to have a good game against D-Lowe." Coming into last night's game pitting the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals, Pujols was only hitting .235 in 17 career at bats against Lowe with no home runs. Overdue, you bet!
With a 1-5 career record, a 5.24 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and a .325 batting average allowed in six career starts against the St. Louis Cardinals, it was clear going into tonight's game that Lowe was going to have his work cut out for him. The good news for him was that Rick Ankiel and his career .500 batting average against was out of the starting lineup again for the Cards. Unfortunately for the Dodgers, known "Lowe killers" Ryan Ludwick (.571), Adam Kennedy (.379), Yadier Molina (.308) and Troy Glaus (.300) were all in tonight's starting lineup for the Cards. The writing was certainly on the wall...
Lowe and the Dodgers though got off to a quick start tonight, taking a 2-1 lead after two innings thanks to Manny Ramirez's third home run in four days, and an Angel Berroa run-scoring triple. Ramirez would score Matt Kemp with a single in the third inning to give the Dodgers a 3-1 lead. Lowe gave up four hits in the first two innings, so he was already looking shaky, but got bailed out by overanxious Cards newcomer Felipe Lopez in the bottom of the second. Lopez tried to score from second on a Cesar Izturis single with two out in the second inning, but was cut down easily at the plate to thwart the rally... A Pujols double, a Ludwick single, a Glaus single and a Molina single in the third quickly tied things at 3-3.
Things went from bad to worse for Lowe in the fourth inning. Opposing pitcher Joel Piniero opened it with a single, Izturis followed with a one out single, and then Kennedy singled. The bases were now loaded and Mr. Pujols was coming to the plate. You probably can guess what happened. Pujols unloaded on a fastball, driving it high and deep into the left field stands for a grand slam. Ludwick followed with a home run of his own and Lowe's night was done for. The carnage: 3 1/3 innings pitched, 13 hits allowed, eight earned runs allowed - the kind of performance that can severely hurt your fantasy team... The Dodgers would try to rally, but it would come up short as they would lose 9-6.
As for Pujols, he certainly got well quickly against Lowe and now owns a robust .350 career average against him with his 3-for-3 effort tonight. He also walked in the sixth inning and added a fourth hit in the 8th inning to complete his perfect night at the plate. With the 4-for-4 hitting barrage, Pujols upped his batting average to .352 on the season.
Being an owner of Lowe in four of my five most important fantasy baseball leagues, I'd ordinarily be very upset about his poor start and how it negatively affected all of my fantasy teams... But, it didn't affect me in the slightest as I had the foresight to bench him in EVERY ONE OF MY LEAGUES this week! Yes, I dodged a BIG bullet!
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With a 1-5 career record, a 5.24 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and a .325 batting average allowed in six career starts against the St. Louis Cardinals, it was clear going into tonight's game that Lowe was going to have his work cut out for him. The good news for him was that Rick Ankiel and his career .500 batting average against was out of the starting lineup again for the Cards. Unfortunately for the Dodgers, known "Lowe killers" Ryan Ludwick (.571), Adam Kennedy (.379), Yadier Molina (.308) and Troy Glaus (.300) were all in tonight's starting lineup for the Cards. The writing was certainly on the wall...
Lowe and the Dodgers though got off to a quick start tonight, taking a 2-1 lead after two innings thanks to Manny Ramirez's third home run in four days, and an Angel Berroa run-scoring triple. Ramirez would score Matt Kemp with a single in the third inning to give the Dodgers a 3-1 lead. Lowe gave up four hits in the first two innings, so he was already looking shaky, but got bailed out by overanxious Cards newcomer Felipe Lopez in the bottom of the second. Lopez tried to score from second on a Cesar Izturis single with two out in the second inning, but was cut down easily at the plate to thwart the rally... A Pujols double, a Ludwick single, a Glaus single and a Molina single in the third quickly tied things at 3-3.
Things went from bad to worse for Lowe in the fourth inning. Opposing pitcher Joel Piniero opened it with a single, Izturis followed with a one out single, and then Kennedy singled. The bases were now loaded and Mr. Pujols was coming to the plate. You probably can guess what happened. Pujols unloaded on a fastball, driving it high and deep into the left field stands for a grand slam. Ludwick followed with a home run of his own and Lowe's night was done for. The carnage: 3 1/3 innings pitched, 13 hits allowed, eight earned runs allowed - the kind of performance that can severely hurt your fantasy team... The Dodgers would try to rally, but it would come up short as they would lose 9-6.
As for Pujols, he certainly got well quickly against Lowe and now owns a robust .350 career average against him with his 3-for-3 effort tonight. He also walked in the sixth inning and added a fourth hit in the 8th inning to complete his perfect night at the plate. With the 4-for-4 hitting barrage, Pujols upped his batting average to .352 on the season.
Being an owner of Lowe in four of my five most important fantasy baseball leagues, I'd ordinarily be very upset about his poor start and how it negatively affected all of my fantasy teams... But, it didn't affect me in the slightest as I had the foresight to bench him in EVERY ONE OF MY LEAGUES this week! Yes, I dodged a BIG bullet!
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Monday, June 9, 2008
Free Fallin'...
... and no, that isn't the sound of Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers playing his huge classic on my PC... rather, that is what has happened to my fantasy baseball teams over the past couple of weeks. Before I went on my little vacation to Washington D.C. and Nashville, four of my five CBS Sportsline teams were in the top four positions, with a couple of them being in second place... With free internet access at both the Best Western hotel I stayed in while in our nation's capital and at the fabulous Radisson Opryland hotel I stayed in while in Nashville, I figured I wouldn't have much trouble managing my teams. And actually, I did quite the nice job with my roster moves, most especially reacquiring Derek Lowe of the Dodgers in four of my five leagues and riding his two wins last week and also getting Jonathan Sanchez of the Giants and getting his two wins in a couple of leagues.
Unfortunately for me, the Lowe and Sanchez pickups were the only things that seemed to go right in my leagues while I was away from California. "Big Papi" went on the DL on June 3rd with an injured wrist. He could be gone for the season. As is, he's out for at least a month... I have him on two of my teams. The next night, Carlos Pena broke his finger. He's out for six weeks. I had him on three of my teams. The following night Rick Ankiel is mysteriously missing from my lineups for a second consecutive day... he's now missed a full week. Ankiel was on three of my teams as well. For the week, the three combined to play in two games, getting two hits in six at bats, with a home run, three RBI's a run and a steal. When you figure your average player is going to get you 25 at bats a week, you can see just how much of a hole this put me in for the week... I also got Ryan Zimmerman's goose egg in a league last week. Taken as a sum, I was missing nearly 14% of my offense combined in those four leagues.
Now you probably know the reason for the "Free Fallin'" title... as I type this at 7:00 PM on 6/9/08, I have NO TEAMS in the top four positions!!! Since these are all money leagues that I'm talking about, this is pretty disheartening. If you win the league, you get the big cash prize. You get nothing for coming in second. Just two weeks ago, my teams were tracking very nicely. Today, I am scrambling to replace injured players and make something of my teams that are suddenly resembling M*A*S*H units! Perhaps the Beatles classic "HELP!" may me the next song title I use in describing the plight of my fantasy baseball teams... though I'd prefer to keep on "Running Down A Dream" of winning at least one of these leagues...
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Unfortunately for me, the Lowe and Sanchez pickups were the only things that seemed to go right in my leagues while I was away from California. "Big Papi" went on the DL on June 3rd with an injured wrist. He could be gone for the season. As is, he's out for at least a month... I have him on two of my teams. The next night, Carlos Pena broke his finger. He's out for six weeks. I had him on three of my teams. The following night Rick Ankiel is mysteriously missing from my lineups for a second consecutive day... he's now missed a full week. Ankiel was on three of my teams as well. For the week, the three combined to play in two games, getting two hits in six at bats, with a home run, three RBI's a run and a steal. When you figure your average player is going to get you 25 at bats a week, you can see just how much of a hole this put me in for the week... I also got Ryan Zimmerman's goose egg in a league last week. Taken as a sum, I was missing nearly 14% of my offense combined in those four leagues.
Now you probably know the reason for the "Free Fallin'" title... as I type this at 7:00 PM on 6/9/08, I have NO TEAMS in the top four positions!!! Since these are all money leagues that I'm talking about, this is pretty disheartening. If you win the league, you get the big cash prize. You get nothing for coming in second. Just two weeks ago, my teams were tracking very nicely. Today, I am scrambling to replace injured players and make something of my teams that are suddenly resembling M*A*S*H units! Perhaps the Beatles classic "HELP!" may me the next song title I use in describing the plight of my fantasy baseball teams... though I'd prefer to keep on "Running Down A Dream" of winning at least one of these leagues...
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Tuesday, May 27, 2008
32 Points Down... Yet Hope Springs Eternal!
While four of my five most important fantasy baseball teams are doing very well at the moment (in the top 3 or 4 teams), my one team has been bitten by the injury bug all season long. First Erik Bedard went down... then A-Rod!!, then Troy Tulowitski and finally, Vernon Wells. Yes, four of my top nine picks got injured during the season's first quarter! Not surprisingly, that team sits in 8th place, 32 points out of first! For those of you who play fantasy baseball, you know that is A TON of ground to make up...
Yet why do I have hope? Because the team I've put together is now arguably the best one out of all five of my teams! I've carefully orchestrated a couple of trades where I did have a little excess, landing stars as Derrek Lee, Ryan Zimmerman and Scott Kazmir. I took a chance and picked up a couple of prospects with A LOT of upside in Clayton Kershaw and Jay Bruce. The speculation on both minor leaguers has already started to pay off as they now both are in the majors and off to impressive debuts. I also stashed away Pedro Martinez a couple of weeks ago, and he appears to be ready to pitch again. Four months of Pedro? Well, I'd be happy with three at this point, and you know just how much he can contribute if you're a fantasy leaguer.
Here's the team I've put together...
C: Soto, Olivo
1B: D. Lee
2B: B. Roberts
3B: A-Rod
SS: Theriot
OF: C. Lee, Dye, Hunter, Ankiel, Bruce
U: Teixiera, Zimmerman
SP: Vazquez, Kazmir, Bedard, Billingsley, Kershaw, Lowe, Pedro Martinez
CL: Sherill, Ryan, B. Wilson, Franklin
I have power, I have speed, I have good starting pitching and passable relievers - I actually lead this league in saves with this staff... as long as I can stay relatively injury free, I like this team and it's chances!
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Yet why do I have hope? Because the team I've put together is now arguably the best one out of all five of my teams! I've carefully orchestrated a couple of trades where I did have a little excess, landing stars as Derrek Lee, Ryan Zimmerman and Scott Kazmir. I took a chance and picked up a couple of prospects with A LOT of upside in Clayton Kershaw and Jay Bruce. The speculation on both minor leaguers has already started to pay off as they now both are in the majors and off to impressive debuts. I also stashed away Pedro Martinez a couple of weeks ago, and he appears to be ready to pitch again. Four months of Pedro? Well, I'd be happy with three at this point, and you know just how much he can contribute if you're a fantasy leaguer.
Here's the team I've put together...
C: Soto, Olivo
1B: D. Lee
2B: B. Roberts
3B: A-Rod
SS: Theriot
OF: C. Lee, Dye, Hunter, Ankiel, Bruce
U: Teixiera, Zimmerman
SP: Vazquez, Kazmir, Bedard, Billingsley, Kershaw, Lowe, Pedro Martinez
CL: Sherill, Ryan, B. Wilson, Franklin
I have power, I have speed, I have good starting pitching and passable relievers - I actually lead this league in saves with this staff... as long as I can stay relatively injury free, I like this team and it's chances!
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Thursday, May 15, 2008
First Quarter Fantasy Baseball Report Card
Well, it's May 15th and a month past tax day. It's also the traditional point in baseball circles which demarks the end of the first quarter of the season. Indeed as you look at the standings through the end of the night every major league team had played between 39 and 42 games out of their scheduled 162. In the real baseball world, some of the "usual suspects" as far as teams go are doing well. In the American league, the Angels, Red Sox and Indians are all within a game of first place, while in the National League the Diamondbacks and Cubs are once again leading their respective divisions. But who would have thought that the Florida Marlins and the Tampa Bay Devil Rays would be in first place in the Eastern Divisions of their respective leagues? Conversely, did any of you think that the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies would be fighting it out for the worst record in baseball after they played a game 163 last year to determine the National League's Wild Card team?
Baseball is a fun game, isn't it? Well, fantasy baseball can be a lot of fun as well, though sometimes it can be very frustrating. As things closed out on 5/15/08, four of my five most important teams were right there in the battle for first, while one sat mired in NINTH! These are all 10 team leagues, so being in 9th place is not a good thing. So why are four of my teams doing well, and earning what I would call a grade of B or higher, while the other might get a D- from me? The eight letter word that fantasy leaguers ALL dread: INJURIES!!!
Here's a quick overview of my leagues and my teams:
Contenders -
ANGELS (68.5 pts, 2nd place, 4.5 pts out of 1st)
Strong in pitching, good in hitting, needing a little speed. Behind my first round draft pick Johan Santana, this team has managed to post a nifty 2.94 ERA and 1.19 WHIP to date. With only 31 steals the team ranks 8th in that category. Only two teams are within 3/4 of a run of me in ERA and only two are within .07 of me in WHIP. Given that James Shields, Javier Vazquez and Zach Grienke are also on this staff, perhaps a trade of Santana for some speed will be something I may explore at some point. And this is coming from a HUGE Santana fan!
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Fantasy Baseball Gurus -
WAVES (63.5 pts, 3rd place, 4.5 pts out of 1st)
This team is the perfect example why you have to discount a slow start if you feel you have drafted a good team. As Baseball HQ's Ron Shandler says "exercise excruciating patience" early in the season. Four weeks in, this team sat tied for 7th place, 29 points out of first. Why did the team get off to such a rough start? David Ortiz wasn't hitting. Mike Napoli and Carlos Pena were hitting home runs, but not for average. Andruw Jones? Well, he just wasn't hitting at all and got shown the door soon after this. My team batting average stood at .258 on that day. 2 1/2 weeks later, this team's batting average sits at .277. I've gone from 9th to 3rd in that category! It doesn't hurt that this team features the other-worldly Lance Berkman along wih a now healthy Jimmy Rollins. Did I mention exercise excruciating patience? Well, an impatient owner in this particular league dropped Robinson Cano and guess who picked him up last week and got to enjoy his 4-for-4 performance last night? :) With 42.5 out of a possible 50 points in hitting, but only 21 in pitching, it's clear that at some point, I may need to move some of my offense to help out Cole Hamels and Zach Grienke.
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Boys Of Summer -
THRASHERS (56 pts, 4th place, 9 points out of 1st)
Easily the tightest of any of my five leagues. With only 20.5 points separating first to last at the moment, no team is even remotely close to out of it yet. Over the course of the past week, I've been as low as 9th and as high as 2nd. Yes, this one still has some "settling down" to do. As I may or may not have mentioned here before, this was definitely the strangest of my five drafts. Outfielders went very early and closers very late. As a result, Francisco Rodriguez fell to me at #70 in the draft and I took Billy Wagner with my next pick as all of the offensive players I had targeted for my 7th and 8th round draft picks were gone. George Sherrill was around as the draft was ending so I took him. Well, K-Rod and Sherrill have combined for 31 saves... only one other team in my league has that many total! Needless to say, I'm running away with the category, and with J.J. Putz now healthy, closers became expendable. So, I moved Billy Wagner and Ian Snell for Scott Kazmir this past week. My team leads the league with 45 saves, but is dead last in wins with 14. I have GREAT power here, but am lacking a little in batting average and speed. More trades to come here, I think... but I have a lot of optimism here as with my WAVES team, Lance Berkman and Jimmy Rollins lead the offense.
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Diamond Classic -
CRUSADERS (64.0 pts, 4th place, 15.5 points out of 1st)
This is the one team of mine that got off to a truly BLAZING start. Four weeks into the season I was in first place with 71.5 points. Why have I lost 7.5 points and fallen from my perch? My pitching has gone bad. My ace, Jake Peavy has been roughed up a little of late. My sparkling ERA and WHIP of 2.78 and 1.20 have risen to 3.31 and 1.24. Unexpectedly, Brian Roberts, Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Beltre have been drains on my batting average, with none hitting above .265 at the moment. Consequently, I sit in 8th in the category today. Fortunately, my five outfielders (Rick Ankiel, Carlos Lee, Corey Hart, Jermaine Dye and Josh Hamilton) are all hitting .289 or higher at the moment. Hamilton was a draft day target of mine and this was the only one of my five leagues where I nabbed him. His 44 RBI's are a major reason why I've been near the front of this league from the get-go. Out of all of my teams, this one probably has the best balance. Good speed, good pitching, good in pretty much everything. As long as my players can perform up to expectations and I avoid injures, I expect this team to be fighting for a title come September.
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From East to West -
CRUSHERS (46.5 pts, 9th place, 25.5 pts out of 1st)
INJURIES! Can you say injuries? I knew you could! When I went into the warroom and peaked at the draft order a couple of hours ahead of time, I was pretty stoked that I finally had a number one pick. A-Rod, the man who helped me to so much success in 2007, would be mine! As the draft unfolded, things just seemed to get better and better. Erik Bedard would be my pitching ace with the 40th pick. Troy Tulowitski fell almost 15 spots below his draft average to me with the 60th pick. Vernon Wells was my 9th round pick. The only thing that went wrong on draft day was that all the decent closers went early. So I reluctantly took Joe Borowski with my 19th round draft pick. And you know the rest of the story! Yes, "Murphy's Law" has attacked this team like a tornado... but am I giving up? NEVER! I know how A-Rod can carry a team and I saw what Bedard did last year... and I've also got perennial slow starter and second-half star Mark Teixiera on my team. Yes, there is even hope for my one "bad" team!!!
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Baseball is a fun game, isn't it? Well, fantasy baseball can be a lot of fun as well, though sometimes it can be very frustrating. As things closed out on 5/15/08, four of my five most important teams were right there in the battle for first, while one sat mired in NINTH! These are all 10 team leagues, so being in 9th place is not a good thing. So why are four of my teams doing well, and earning what I would call a grade of B or higher, while the other might get a D- from me? The eight letter word that fantasy leaguers ALL dread: INJURIES!!!
Here's a quick overview of my leagues and my teams:
Contenders -
ANGELS (68.5 pts, 2nd place, 4.5 pts out of 1st)
Strong in pitching, good in hitting, needing a little speed. Behind my first round draft pick Johan Santana, this team has managed to post a nifty 2.94 ERA and 1.19 WHIP to date. With only 31 steals the team ranks 8th in that category. Only two teams are within 3/4 of a run of me in ERA and only two are within .07 of me in WHIP. Given that James Shields, Javier Vazquez and Zach Grienke are also on this staff, perhaps a trade of Santana for some speed will be something I may explore at some point. And this is coming from a HUGE Santana fan!
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Fantasy Baseball Gurus -
WAVES (63.5 pts, 3rd place, 4.5 pts out of 1st)
This team is the perfect example why you have to discount a slow start if you feel you have drafted a good team. As Baseball HQ's Ron Shandler says "exercise excruciating patience" early in the season. Four weeks in, this team sat tied for 7th place, 29 points out of first. Why did the team get off to such a rough start? David Ortiz wasn't hitting. Mike Napoli and Carlos Pena were hitting home runs, but not for average. Andruw Jones? Well, he just wasn't hitting at all and got shown the door soon after this. My team batting average stood at .258 on that day. 2 1/2 weeks later, this team's batting average sits at .277. I've gone from 9th to 3rd in that category! It doesn't hurt that this team features the other-worldly Lance Berkman along wih a now healthy Jimmy Rollins. Did I mention exercise excruciating patience? Well, an impatient owner in this particular league dropped Robinson Cano and guess who picked him up last week and got to enjoy his 4-for-4 performance last night? :) With 42.5 out of a possible 50 points in hitting, but only 21 in pitching, it's clear that at some point, I may need to move some of my offense to help out Cole Hamels and Zach Grienke.
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Boys Of Summer -
THRASHERS (56 pts, 4th place, 9 points out of 1st)
Easily the tightest of any of my five leagues. With only 20.5 points separating first to last at the moment, no team is even remotely close to out of it yet. Over the course of the past week, I've been as low as 9th and as high as 2nd. Yes, this one still has some "settling down" to do. As I may or may not have mentioned here before, this was definitely the strangest of my five drafts. Outfielders went very early and closers very late. As a result, Francisco Rodriguez fell to me at #70 in the draft and I took Billy Wagner with my next pick as all of the offensive players I had targeted for my 7th and 8th round draft picks were gone. George Sherrill was around as the draft was ending so I took him. Well, K-Rod and Sherrill have combined for 31 saves... only one other team in my league has that many total! Needless to say, I'm running away with the category, and with J.J. Putz now healthy, closers became expendable. So, I moved Billy Wagner and Ian Snell for Scott Kazmir this past week. My team leads the league with 45 saves, but is dead last in wins with 14. I have GREAT power here, but am lacking a little in batting average and speed. More trades to come here, I think... but I have a lot of optimism here as with my WAVES team, Lance Berkman and Jimmy Rollins lead the offense.
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Diamond Classic -
CRUSADERS (64.0 pts, 4th place, 15.5 points out of 1st)
This is the one team of mine that got off to a truly BLAZING start. Four weeks into the season I was in first place with 71.5 points. Why have I lost 7.5 points and fallen from my perch? My pitching has gone bad. My ace, Jake Peavy has been roughed up a little of late. My sparkling ERA and WHIP of 2.78 and 1.20 have risen to 3.31 and 1.24. Unexpectedly, Brian Roberts, Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Beltre have been drains on my batting average, with none hitting above .265 at the moment. Consequently, I sit in 8th in the category today. Fortunately, my five outfielders (Rick Ankiel, Carlos Lee, Corey Hart, Jermaine Dye and Josh Hamilton) are all hitting .289 or higher at the moment. Hamilton was a draft day target of mine and this was the only one of my five leagues where I nabbed him. His 44 RBI's are a major reason why I've been near the front of this league from the get-go. Out of all of my teams, this one probably has the best balance. Good speed, good pitching, good in pretty much everything. As long as my players can perform up to expectations and I avoid injures, I expect this team to be fighting for a title come September.
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From East to West -
CRUSHERS (46.5 pts, 9th place, 25.5 pts out of 1st)
INJURIES! Can you say injuries? I knew you could! When I went into the warroom and peaked at the draft order a couple of hours ahead of time, I was pretty stoked that I finally had a number one pick. A-Rod, the man who helped me to so much success in 2007, would be mine! As the draft unfolded, things just seemed to get better and better. Erik Bedard would be my pitching ace with the 40th pick. Troy Tulowitski fell almost 15 spots below his draft average to me with the 60th pick. Vernon Wells was my 9th round pick. The only thing that went wrong on draft day was that all the decent closers went early. So I reluctantly took Joe Borowski with my 19th round draft pick. And you know the rest of the story! Yes, "Murphy's Law" has attacked this team like a tornado... but am I giving up? NEVER! I know how A-Rod can carry a team and I saw what Bedard did last year... and I've also got perennial slow starter and second-half star Mark Teixiera on my team. Yes, there is even hope for my one "bad" team!!!
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Saturday, May 3, 2008
Replacing Tulowitski & J-Roll?
The 2008 baseball season has had it's normal share of injuries to star players. As most of you know, A-Rod has been out of action for a bit now and there's really no way to replace the 2007 AL MVP on your fantasy team - you have to just take your lumps and try to survive being without him.
Another guy who had a great season in 2007 was the Colorado Rockies' Troy Tulowitski. 24 home runs, 99 RBI's, 104 runs scored, seven steals and a .291 batting average. Some very nice production from the shortstop position. "Tulo" went down this week and will miss 6-8 weeks with a groin injury, so he's rendered useless and unrosterable in leagues that don't have a DL slot. In most 5x5 10 team leagues, he went around the 50th spot on average. I felt very fortunate to land him at #60 in one of my leagues. Now that he's down, I need to replace him. There are some decent options out there and actually I did manage to grab the Red Sox Julio Lugo as a fill-in for now.
In another league where I've lost Jimmy Rollins for a bit (he may be back in another week or two), the Chicago Cubs' Ryan Theriot has done well as his replacement. However, the more experienced Edgar Renteria is now also available in that league. I'm thinking of making the switch, but am not sure if I should. What do you think? Please vote in my poll, and give me your thoughts if you feel led to. Hopefully, I will make the right move!
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Another guy who had a great season in 2007 was the Colorado Rockies' Troy Tulowitski. 24 home runs, 99 RBI's, 104 runs scored, seven steals and a .291 batting average. Some very nice production from the shortstop position. "Tulo" went down this week and will miss 6-8 weeks with a groin injury, so he's rendered useless and unrosterable in leagues that don't have a DL slot. In most 5x5 10 team leagues, he went around the 50th spot on average. I felt very fortunate to land him at #60 in one of my leagues. Now that he's down, I need to replace him. There are some decent options out there and actually I did manage to grab the Red Sox Julio Lugo as a fill-in for now.
In another league where I've lost Jimmy Rollins for a bit (he may be back in another week or two), the Chicago Cubs' Ryan Theriot has done well as his replacement. However, the more experienced Edgar Renteria is now also available in that league. I'm thinking of making the switch, but am not sure if I should. What do you think? Please vote in my poll, and give me your thoughts if you feel led to. Hopefully, I will make the right move!
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Friday, May 2, 2008
One Month In...
Well, we're a month into the baseball season now, and if you're a fantasy player it's time to start making evaluations of your teams and players and start addressing the weaknesses of your teams and making them better through trades or free agent pickups.
As for me, I'm pretty happy with the results so far in my five most important 10 team rotisserie leagues. Interestingly, the teams where I went against conventional wisdom and took an ace starting pitcher early (Johan Santana amd Jake Peavy) are both in first place as I write this. As for the other three teams where I have no true "ace," two are in sixth place and one is in eighth.
The above said, it's a very long season. If you're a Justin Upton, Pat Burrell or Rafael Furcal owner, it's probably time to sell high. Conversely, it wouldn't be a bad idea to try and trade for David Ortiz, Carlos Pena and others that have gotten off to a slow start with the bat.
I'll talk more baseball this weekend, time permitting.
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As for me, I'm pretty happy with the results so far in my five most important 10 team rotisserie leagues. Interestingly, the teams where I went against conventional wisdom and took an ace starting pitcher early (Johan Santana amd Jake Peavy) are both in first place as I write this. As for the other three teams where I have no true "ace," two are in sixth place and one is in eighth.
The above said, it's a very long season. If you're a Justin Upton, Pat Burrell or Rafael Furcal owner, it's probably time to sell high. Conversely, it wouldn't be a bad idea to try and trade for David Ortiz, Carlos Pena and others that have gotten off to a slow start with the bat.
I'll talk more baseball this weekend, time permitting.
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Saturday, April 5, 2008
Early Fantasy Baseball Returns...
Yes, it's REALLY early here in the 2008 baseball season, but as we come to a close in week 1, some good new to report in my fantasy leagues. I'm in five CBS Sportsline money leagues and to this point, THREE are in first, one is in 6th and one is in 8th place. Can we end the season now? :)
Long story short is that the season is a long one, but it is certainly nice to see my teams getting out of the gate well this year!!! The key though will to be to keep managing the teams for another 25 weeks!
Long story short is that the season is a long one, but it is certainly nice to see my teams getting out of the gate well this year!!! The key though will to be to keep managing the teams for another 25 weeks!
Monday, March 17, 2008
Fantasy Baseball 2008: Overrated
I covered some of the players who could be good draft day steals on Saturday. Now I'll cover some of the guys who are sure to be overvalued in your fantasy leagues this year.
1. Dontrelle Willis (SP - DET): How does a pitcher who is moving from the NL to the AL and with horrible numbers go on average at the 131 position in CBS Sportsline drafts? He put up a 1.42 WHIP in 2006 and was fortunate to escape with a 3.87 ERA that year. The luck ran out last year as hitters pounded Willis to the tune of a .294 batting average. His WHIP ballooned to 1.60 as did his ERA to 5.17. If you've had him on your team either of the past two years, you've likely finished near the bottom of your leagues. Going NL to AL typically hurts the ratios by about 7-8%... what does this mean? It means let someone else draft Mr. Willis and send them a "thank you" note after the draft's conclusion!!!!
2. B.J. Upton (OF - TB): Yes, he's a potential 30/30 guy, but he also could strike out 200 times and hit .240. How did he hit .300 last year? No one really knows, but when you whiff nearly a third (32.5%) of the time and you have only an average batting eye (65 walks in 2007), you're more expected to bat the .258 or .246 that Upton did in his partial tours of duty in 2004 and 2006. While I don't think he will bat that low, .300 won't happen anytime soon as long as he's striking out so much. Upton's currently going 27th on average in CBS Sportsline drafts. You'd be much better served taking someone like Lance Berkman, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rios, Troy Tulowitski, Aramis Ramirez, Nick Markakis or even Adam Dunn (who does walk a lot) ahead of him. Unless he slips to the late part of the 5th round, you want to let someone else take on his risk.
3. Vladimir Guerrero (OF - Angels): You may be surprised to see this perennial All-Star who drove in 125 runs and hit .324 last year on this list. For seemingly forever, he's been someone you could count on for close to 40 homers and a good number of steals. While his average number of steals the past 10 years has been great, the reality is that one two times has he stolen more than 15 bases in a season (2001 with 37, and 2002 with 40). Last year, he stole all of TWO bases! Even Prince Fielder had that many! Additionally, "Super Vlad" only hit 27 home runs last year - his fewest in a full season in his career, continuing a trend which started in 2006. In the eight years from 1998-2005, he averaged a home run every 15.5 at bats. The past two years, it's been one every 19.7 at bats. This is a sizeable 27% drop in his home run rate! If this were just a one year aberration (like with Andruw Jones), you wouldn't be that concerned, but this trend has now lasted two seasons! Over the course of a 600 at bat season instead of giving you 39 home runs, he will only give you 30. Yes, a 30 HR, 115 RBI season with a .300+ batting average is still a nice thing from the now scarce outfield position. Just don't go drafting him in the first couple of rounds (he's going 18th on average in CBS Sportline drafts) as you used to - the speed is no longer there, and the power is not what it once was!
4. Joe Mauer - (C - MIN): One of my biggest rules of fantasy baseball and the keys to my success over the years is to NOT draft the so-called "positionally scarce" positions such as catcher early. Why grab a catcher in the 5th or 6th round who might get you 10 home runs, 70 RBI's and a .300 batting average over a slugger like Paul Konerko or Adam Dunn who will get you 35-40 home runs and 100 RBI's? One player will not kill your team's batting average, nor will one make it. Yes, Joe Mauer has a career .313 batting average, and he did flirt with .400 for a brief time in 2006... other than that magical first half of that season, what has Joe Mauer given the average fantasy team? Not a heck of a lot! Why spend your 58th draft pick on the oft-injured Mauer when you could get just as much production out of someone such as Ramon Hernandez, Geovany Soto or Mike Napoli in the 22nd round? If you're drafting Joe Mauer (or pretty much any catcher early), then you're doing the other owners in your league a BIG favor!
5. Chien-Ming Wang (SP - NYY): Thou shalt not chase after WINS. There is no way to kill your fantasy team faster than going after wins. Dontrelle Willis may very well win 18-20 games with the Tigers this year... but at what cost to your fantasy team? 200 innings of a 5.00 ERA or a 1.600 WHIP will kill your team. Now, Mr. Wang is not going to give you those kind of numbers, but he's also not going to do much to help your team other than in the wins column. His ERA in 2008 will be around 4.00, his WHIP about 1.300. While these numbers won't hurt your team, they also won't help them. What will hurt is his inability to strike batters out. In his first full season he struck out an abysmal 76 batters in 218 innings for the Yankees. Many relievers do that in 70 innings! Last year he improved to 103 K's in 199 innings. Still, when your average starting pitcher in fantasy is giving you 140-150 K's, you know that despite his improvement, he's still hurting you in that category. Wang is going on average at 106th in CBS Sportsline leagues at the moment. The net effect is zero, and he doesn't get his projected 18-19 wins then guess what? He's hurting your team!!! You would be much better served using that pick on someone who might be able to double that strikeout total with similar or better ratios and maybe a couple wins less - someone like Javier Vazquez, Matt Cain, A.J. Burnett, Tim Lincecum, Rich Hill or John Maine would be a much better use of that 11th round pick if you're looking for a starting pitcher who will help your team!
With our next column I will look at sleepers. These are the guys that more than likely will get passed upon on draft day and will be available to you in the very last round, or as an afterthought in free agency.
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1. Dontrelle Willis (SP - DET): How does a pitcher who is moving from the NL to the AL and with horrible numbers go on average at the 131 position in CBS Sportsline drafts? He put up a 1.42 WHIP in 2006 and was fortunate to escape with a 3.87 ERA that year. The luck ran out last year as hitters pounded Willis to the tune of a .294 batting average. His WHIP ballooned to 1.60 as did his ERA to 5.17. If you've had him on your team either of the past two years, you've likely finished near the bottom of your leagues. Going NL to AL typically hurts the ratios by about 7-8%... what does this mean? It means let someone else draft Mr. Willis and send them a "thank you" note after the draft's conclusion!!!!
2. B.J. Upton (OF - TB): Yes, he's a potential 30/30 guy, but he also could strike out 200 times and hit .240. How did he hit .300 last year? No one really knows, but when you whiff nearly a third (32.5%) of the time and you have only an average batting eye (65 walks in 2007), you're more expected to bat the .258 or .246 that Upton did in his partial tours of duty in 2004 and 2006. While I don't think he will bat that low, .300 won't happen anytime soon as long as he's striking out so much. Upton's currently going 27th on average in CBS Sportsline drafts. You'd be much better served taking someone like Lance Berkman, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rios, Troy Tulowitski, Aramis Ramirez, Nick Markakis or even Adam Dunn (who does walk a lot) ahead of him. Unless he slips to the late part of the 5th round, you want to let someone else take on his risk.
3. Vladimir Guerrero (OF - Angels): You may be surprised to see this perennial All-Star who drove in 125 runs and hit .324 last year on this list. For seemingly forever, he's been someone you could count on for close to 40 homers and a good number of steals. While his average number of steals the past 10 years has been great, the reality is that one two times has he stolen more than 15 bases in a season (2001 with 37, and 2002 with 40). Last year, he stole all of TWO bases! Even Prince Fielder had that many! Additionally, "Super Vlad" only hit 27 home runs last year - his fewest in a full season in his career, continuing a trend which started in 2006. In the eight years from 1998-2005, he averaged a home run every 15.5 at bats. The past two years, it's been one every 19.7 at bats. This is a sizeable 27% drop in his home run rate! If this were just a one year aberration (like with Andruw Jones), you wouldn't be that concerned, but this trend has now lasted two seasons! Over the course of a 600 at bat season instead of giving you 39 home runs, he will only give you 30. Yes, a 30 HR, 115 RBI season with a .300+ batting average is still a nice thing from the now scarce outfield position. Just don't go drafting him in the first couple of rounds (he's going 18th on average in CBS Sportline drafts) as you used to - the speed is no longer there, and the power is not what it once was!
4. Joe Mauer - (C - MIN): One of my biggest rules of fantasy baseball and the keys to my success over the years is to NOT draft the so-called "positionally scarce" positions such as catcher early. Why grab a catcher in the 5th or 6th round who might get you 10 home runs, 70 RBI's and a .300 batting average over a slugger like Paul Konerko or Adam Dunn who will get you 35-40 home runs and 100 RBI's? One player will not kill your team's batting average, nor will one make it. Yes, Joe Mauer has a career .313 batting average, and he did flirt with .400 for a brief time in 2006... other than that magical first half of that season, what has Joe Mauer given the average fantasy team? Not a heck of a lot! Why spend your 58th draft pick on the oft-injured Mauer when you could get just as much production out of someone such as Ramon Hernandez, Geovany Soto or Mike Napoli in the 22nd round? If you're drafting Joe Mauer (or pretty much any catcher early), then you're doing the other owners in your league a BIG favor!
5. Chien-Ming Wang (SP - NYY): Thou shalt not chase after WINS. There is no way to kill your fantasy team faster than going after wins. Dontrelle Willis may very well win 18-20 games with the Tigers this year... but at what cost to your fantasy team? 200 innings of a 5.00 ERA or a 1.600 WHIP will kill your team. Now, Mr. Wang is not going to give you those kind of numbers, but he's also not going to do much to help your team other than in the wins column. His ERA in 2008 will be around 4.00, his WHIP about 1.300. While these numbers won't hurt your team, they also won't help them. What will hurt is his inability to strike batters out. In his first full season he struck out an abysmal 76 batters in 218 innings for the Yankees. Many relievers do that in 70 innings! Last year he improved to 103 K's in 199 innings. Still, when your average starting pitcher in fantasy is giving you 140-150 K's, you know that despite his improvement, he's still hurting you in that category. Wang is going on average at 106th in CBS Sportsline leagues at the moment. The net effect is zero, and he doesn't get his projected 18-19 wins then guess what? He's hurting your team!!! You would be much better served using that pick on someone who might be able to double that strikeout total with similar or better ratios and maybe a couple wins less - someone like Javier Vazquez, Matt Cain, A.J. Burnett, Tim Lincecum, Rich Hill or John Maine would be a much better use of that 11th round pick if you're looking for a starting pitcher who will help your team!
With our next column I will look at sleepers. These are the guys that more than likely will get passed upon on draft day and will be available to you in the very last round, or as an afterthought in free agency.
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Saturday, March 15, 2008
Fantasy Baseball 2008: Bargains!
Yes, I know many of you have been waiting patiently to post about Fantasy Baseball. With opening day only 10 days from now, it's crucial to know who you should be investing in and who you should not be putting stock into on draft day. This is not a list of sleepers, rather it's a list of players who should either be targeting and avoiding on draft day. No, you're not going to likely land A-Rod at #5 or #6 as many of us did last year, but just like last year there are bargains to be had even in the first round so let's start there.
UNDERRATED (Draft Day Bargains)
1. Johan Santana (SP - Mets): Who has been fantasy baseball's most consistently productive player the past five years? No, it hasn't been Alex Rodriguez nor Albert Pujols. On the surface, 2007 may have looked like an "off" year for Johan the Great with a 15-13 record and a 3.33 ERA, but in reality it wasn't too much off his norm. Most of that record was due to some awful run support, particularly Justin Morneau forgetting how to hit the final 2 1/2 months of the season. He was also a little unlucky as a much higher percentage of his flyball's went over the fence last year. His K/9 ratio was the second-best of his past five years at 9.7, so he obviously still has his stuff. And now he's moved to arguably the hardest park to hit in in the National League, Shea Stadium. With the Mets, expect him to make a run at 20 wins, and an ERA perhaps as low as 2.50. On CBS Sportsline drafts, he's currently getting picked 9th on average, my projections have him ending 2008 as the #2 ranked player behind A-Rod. If you have the 6 or 7 spot, do just like last year and grab Johan if he's available and thank your lucky stars!
2. Miguel Cabrera (OF - Det): Another guy who has swithced leagues. "Miggy" has moved from a very poor offense to one of the most potent in baseball as a Detroit Tiger. He should fit in nicely and since he's only 25 years old, there's still lots of room for growth. Something like 40 homers, 150 RBI's and a .335 batting average is not out of the question. It's entirely possible that he out-produces A-Rod this year... Currently, he's going #10 on average on CBS Sportsline drafts. Needless to say, if he's avaiable a few spots before that, it wouldn't be a bad idea to grab him!
3. Scott Kazmir (SP - TB): Don't let the team this 24 year old plays for deter you. After a slow start this ace got it all together in the second half last year, posting an amazing 143 strikeouts, a 2.93 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 111 innings. With Johan Santana now in the National League, look for he and Erik Bedard to be the top two fantasy pitchers in the American League. Unlike that 4th round pick that Bedard would cost you, Kazmir can be had on average with the 73rd pick in CBS Sportsline drafts. If healthy, he could make a serious run at 275-300 strikeouts. Don't be afraid to take him with your 6th or even 5th round pick - he will be more than worth it!
4. Aramis Ramirez (3B - Cubs): Why does this guy never get any respect? Is it because A-Rod. Miggy and David Wright get all of the spotlight and hype when it comes to thirdbasemen? I don't know what it is, all I know is that when healthy this guy is EXTREMELY productive, yet he can be had for a fraction of the cost of the aforementioned players, going 43rd right now on average in CBS Sportsline drafts. Here's what Aramis has averaged the past five years: 32 HR, 104 RBI's, a .298 batting average. In other words he gives you third round production with a 5th draft round draft pick and at a scarce position to boot!
5. Andruw Jones (OF - Dodgers): This would seem like a no-brainer pick to many of you, I'm sure. Here's a player who AVERAGED 46 HR and 128.5 RBI's, 101 runs scored and a .262 batting average in 2005 and 2006 with the Braves. 2007 was a contract year for Andruw and he tried to play through nagging injuries the ENTIRE season. Watching the Atlanta Superstation, it sounded like a broken record hearing Chip Carey talk about Andruw's latest injury. In watching Braves games last year, it seemed to me that was just part of the problem. Andruw looked a little smaller to me - I found out recently he actually had taken off 20 pounds prior to the 2007 season. He also seemed like he was trying too hard much of the time, chasing balls that he normally wouldn't. You put it all together and what you got with him last year was a complete DISASTER!: 26 HR, 94 RBI's, 83 runs and a putrid .222 batting average. In the off season, Andruw put the 20 pounds of weight back and and switched coasts, moving to Los Angeles. Contrary to popular belief, Dodger Stadium is not the power-sapper many make it out to be. Shawn Green posted 91 home runs in the 2001-2002 seasons as a Dodger and Adrian Beltre (another underrated guy this year) posted 48 of them in 2004. Last year, it took a third or fourth round pick to get Andruw. This year, he's going on average around 97th in CBS Sportsline leagues. Don't be afraid to grab him a round or before that. Outfield is not as deep as it once was, and you may never again find a likely 35-40 HR source so cheaply!
In my next blog, we will look at some of the most overvalued players for the 2008 Fantasy Season.
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UNDERRATED (Draft Day Bargains)
1. Johan Santana (SP - Mets): Who has been fantasy baseball's most consistently productive player the past five years? No, it hasn't been Alex Rodriguez nor Albert Pujols. On the surface, 2007 may have looked like an "off" year for Johan the Great with a 15-13 record and a 3.33 ERA, but in reality it wasn't too much off his norm. Most of that record was due to some awful run support, particularly Justin Morneau forgetting how to hit the final 2 1/2 months of the season. He was also a little unlucky as a much higher percentage of his flyball's went over the fence last year. His K/9 ratio was the second-best of his past five years at 9.7, so he obviously still has his stuff. And now he's moved to arguably the hardest park to hit in in the National League, Shea Stadium. With the Mets, expect him to make a run at 20 wins, and an ERA perhaps as low as 2.50. On CBS Sportsline drafts, he's currently getting picked 9th on average, my projections have him ending 2008 as the #2 ranked player behind A-Rod. If you have the 6 or 7 spot, do just like last year and grab Johan if he's available and thank your lucky stars!
2. Miguel Cabrera (OF - Det): Another guy who has swithced leagues. "Miggy" has moved from a very poor offense to one of the most potent in baseball as a Detroit Tiger. He should fit in nicely and since he's only 25 years old, there's still lots of room for growth. Something like 40 homers, 150 RBI's and a .335 batting average is not out of the question. It's entirely possible that he out-produces A-Rod this year... Currently, he's going #10 on average on CBS Sportsline drafts. Needless to say, if he's avaiable a few spots before that, it wouldn't be a bad idea to grab him!
3. Scott Kazmir (SP - TB): Don't let the team this 24 year old plays for deter you. After a slow start this ace got it all together in the second half last year, posting an amazing 143 strikeouts, a 2.93 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 111 innings. With Johan Santana now in the National League, look for he and Erik Bedard to be the top two fantasy pitchers in the American League. Unlike that 4th round pick that Bedard would cost you, Kazmir can be had on average with the 73rd pick in CBS Sportsline drafts. If healthy, he could make a serious run at 275-300 strikeouts. Don't be afraid to take him with your 6th or even 5th round pick - he will be more than worth it!
4. Aramis Ramirez (3B - Cubs): Why does this guy never get any respect? Is it because A-Rod. Miggy and David Wright get all of the spotlight and hype when it comes to thirdbasemen? I don't know what it is, all I know is that when healthy this guy is EXTREMELY productive, yet he can be had for a fraction of the cost of the aforementioned players, going 43rd right now on average in CBS Sportsline drafts. Here's what Aramis has averaged the past five years: 32 HR, 104 RBI's, a .298 batting average. In other words he gives you third round production with a 5th draft round draft pick and at a scarce position to boot!
5. Andruw Jones (OF - Dodgers): This would seem like a no-brainer pick to many of you, I'm sure. Here's a player who AVERAGED 46 HR and 128.5 RBI's, 101 runs scored and a .262 batting average in 2005 and 2006 with the Braves. 2007 was a contract year for Andruw and he tried to play through nagging injuries the ENTIRE season. Watching the Atlanta Superstation, it sounded like a broken record hearing Chip Carey talk about Andruw's latest injury. In watching Braves games last year, it seemed to me that was just part of the problem. Andruw looked a little smaller to me - I found out recently he actually had taken off 20 pounds prior to the 2007 season. He also seemed like he was trying too hard much of the time, chasing balls that he normally wouldn't. You put it all together and what you got with him last year was a complete DISASTER!: 26 HR, 94 RBI's, 83 runs and a putrid .222 batting average. In the off season, Andruw put the 20 pounds of weight back and and switched coasts, moving to Los Angeles. Contrary to popular belief, Dodger Stadium is not the power-sapper many make it out to be. Shawn Green posted 91 home runs in the 2001-2002 seasons as a Dodger and Adrian Beltre (another underrated guy this year) posted 48 of them in 2004. Last year, it took a third or fourth round pick to get Andruw. This year, he's going on average around 97th in CBS Sportsline leagues. Don't be afraid to grab him a round or before that. Outfield is not as deep as it once was, and you may never again find a likely 35-40 HR source so cheaply!
In my next blog, we will look at some of the most overvalued players for the 2008 Fantasy Season.
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Monday, February 4, 2008
Is It Baseball Season Yet?
The answer to that one would be "no" at the moment, but now that David (in the form of Eli Manning and the Giants) slayed Goliath (Tom Brady and the Patriots) in Super Bowl XLII yesterday, it is now time to start focusing on the upcoming major league baseball season. I will also give some extensive coverage to fantasy baseball, draft strategies and what it takes to win your leagues. With Johan Santana going to the Mets, Andruw Jones going to the Dodgers, and the Nationals having a new stadium, there's a lot to look forward to this year in terms of both the real game and the fantasy one that I'm addicted to. I can't wait until we can utter the words PLAY BALL!!!
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Monday, December 24, 2007
Christmas Cash from CBS!
I knew I was going to be getting my cash prize for winning one of the three CBS Sportsline fantasy baseball leagues I competed in this year in the mail soon. Well, I just got today's mail and lo and behold there was my $600 check for winning the one league! And gosh, if Jake Peavy had managed to pitch just decently that final game of the regular season, well I could have won or tied for first in a second league... So close... but hey, I more than doubled my investment so I'm not complaining! Winning cash is so much better than winning t-shirts. Yes, I have a closet full of ESPN t-shirts from the fantasy baseball championships I've won over the years... next year I look forward to competing in even more CBS Sportsline leagues and winning a heck of a lot more CA$H MONEY!!!
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Tuesday, December 18, 2007
A Long December...
It's cold, dreary and rainy here in sunny Southern California as I write this... just the kind of weather which is perfect if you want to catch up on your reading. If you're into sports like me, and most especially into fantasy baseball then this time of the year has some added importance. You're probably thinking at this point why am I thinking about baseball when it's still almost 3 1/2 months until opening day??? Well, it's around this time of the year when the most important fantasy resource around is published - Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster. Now in it's 22nd year, Ron's methodologies have been the foundation of my (and many others') success in fantasy baseball leagues the past several years. The Forecaster is only the tip of the iceberg in terms of what can be gained from Ron, his associates, and their wealth of knowledge and expertise. I strongly recommend everyone to check out and subscribe to his site at BaseballHQ.com for an even more in-depth look into the world of fantasy baseball. The forums there also can be quite informative and interesting as well. Many of the outstanding contributors to the Forecaster make regular appearances in the forums.
Anyways, I've been perusing my copy of the Forecaster since this past Saturday when I received mine in the mail, looking for some hidden pitching gems that no one other than those of us in "Ron's world" know about. Last year's prize new find was probably James Shields of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, who had a breakout season in 2007 and was a major contibutor to my successes last year. Shields put up a 1.11 WHIP (3rd best in the AL), a 3.85 ERA, 184 strikeouts and 12 wins. Great numbers for someone who, chances are, wasn't drafted in your fantasy league last year. Ron was also VERY bullish on Javier Vazquez of the Chicago White Sox and Jake Peavy of the San Diego Padres (who suffered through an injury-plagued 2006) to have breakout years, and they both delivered... Vazquez won 15 games last year, while striking out 213 batters, allowed a miniscule 1.14 WHIP and perhaps unlucky 3.74 ERA. All Peavy did in the National League in 2007 was win pitching's version of the Triple Crown, as he led the senior circuit in ERA at 2.54, strikeouts (240) and wins (19). This success led to his winning the NL Cy Young award as well.
Who is going to step up and perform next year? It's too early to tell yet, but once I start doing some number crunching and working the spreadsheets I will have some guys I'll be looking target come next February and March.
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Anyways, I've been perusing my copy of the Forecaster since this past Saturday when I received mine in the mail, looking for some hidden pitching gems that no one other than those of us in "Ron's world" know about. Last year's prize new find was probably James Shields of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, who had a breakout season in 2007 and was a major contibutor to my successes last year. Shields put up a 1.11 WHIP (3rd best in the AL), a 3.85 ERA, 184 strikeouts and 12 wins. Great numbers for someone who, chances are, wasn't drafted in your fantasy league last year. Ron was also VERY bullish on Javier Vazquez of the Chicago White Sox and Jake Peavy of the San Diego Padres (who suffered through an injury-plagued 2006) to have breakout years, and they both delivered... Vazquez won 15 games last year, while striking out 213 batters, allowed a miniscule 1.14 WHIP and perhaps unlucky 3.74 ERA. All Peavy did in the National League in 2007 was win pitching's version of the Triple Crown, as he led the senior circuit in ERA at 2.54, strikeouts (240) and wins (19). This success led to his winning the NL Cy Young award as well.
Who is going to step up and perform next year? It's too early to tell yet, but once I start doing some number crunching and working the spreadsheets I will have some guys I'll be looking target come next February and March.
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